China added a record 60 GW of new solar capacity in the first quarter of 2025, with rooftop installations accounting for 36 GW – the highest quarterly total for distributed photovoltaic energy in the country's history, according to Rystad Energy.
This increase came as developers rushed to meet deadlines set in updated guidelines from the National Energy Administration (NEA) issued in October 2024 and effective this month.
The new rules emphasise self-consumption to alleviate grid congestion and reduce dependence on centralised power plants. They are also in line with China's twin carbon goals of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Rystad Energy expects growth in rooftop PV installations to continue in the second quarter, with total distributed solar energy additions for the year reaching 130 GW, of which 92 GW will come from commercial and industrial (C&I) projects and 38 GW from residential projects. Utility-scale PV installations are expected to reach a total of 167 GW in 2025, thanks to a robust project pipeline and provincial efforts to meet the targets set out in China's 14th Five-Year Plan.
The NEA policy revision ended full grid access for C&I projects. Installations up to 6 MW can consume their own energy and sell excess energy to the grid, but larger projects must fully utilise energy on-site without selling to the grid.
Although these new guidelines move China forward, they have a dual impact on the C&I sector, which typically has limited or no grid connection. On the one hand, increased self-consumption in C&I rooftop PV projects increases grid connection challenges and helps alleviate grid congestion across the country.
The rules also help accelerate progress in carbon trading and green certificate markets, where installations are expected to surge. However, increased complexity in purchase agreements may introduce new uncertainty and potentially burden project economics, which could deter developers, investors, and financiers.
Provinces are responding to the guidelines in different ways. Inner Mongolia and Jilin have introduced the strictest self-consumption requirements in the country – 90% and 80% for projects up to 6 MW – which led to minimal use of rooftop C&I in the first quarter. Inner Mongolia added only 82 MW of C&I capacity, with rooftop C&I accounting for less than 4% of installed photovoltaic energy, while Jilin installed 40 MW, with rooftop systems accounting for 16% of total solar energy.
Jiangsu and Guangdong, China's two most important provinces in terms of new photovoltaic installations, have not enforced self-consumption thresholds. Both provinces allow large industrial and commercial projects to either gain access to the grid or, upon approval, switch to large power plant status.
In Shandong and Hubei provinces, all surplus energy from industrial and commercial projects connected to the grid must now be traded on energy markets, in line with the NEA's push for market-based pricing of new renewable capacity.